A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
