How This Strange Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still